UN Crime Congress: Emerging Threats and International Divisions

Risk Outlook: September 30, 2026

Sep 30, 2026

Welcome to the Stepwise Risk Outlook, which highlights and contextualizes over-the-horizon developments in key regions of the world and industries of the global market. Today’s featured deep dive by Samuel Bloebaum examines recent findings from the UN Crime Congress.

UN Crime Congress: Emerging Threats and International Divisions

By Samuel Bloebaum

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The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) 15^th Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice 9, hosted in Abu Dhabi from September 26 through October 1, has revealed technology’s key role in facilitating new and dangerous varieties of transnational crime as well as deep divisions in the international community’s crime fighting agendas. The conference also marks the culmination of Abu Dhabi’s successful drive to revive the UAE’s international anti-money laundering reputation.

In today’s full analysis:

Congress Priorities and Emerging Threats
UAE: From Grey List to Anti-Crime Coordinator
Divergent Visions for Cooperation

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Global

Russian-NATO tensions escalate with Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO to protect its sovereignty in Kaliningrad, its Baltic Sea exclave. NATO is responding with criticism of Russian nuclear saber-rattling, noting NATO is a defensive alliance, but NATO leaders are increasingly concerned about Russian hybrid operations targeting NATO infrastructure. Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine, unable to make significant gains on the ground this year and is looking to other tactics to shore up its offensive capabilities. Russia controls the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with an estimated 4,400 stockpiled warheads, of which 1,796 are strategically deployed, making nuclear risks credible.

The Baltic states are under constant Russian pressure. Moscow is using a mix of overt pressure and covert subversion, including information operations to sow discontent among the Russian-speaking population, amplify polarizing narratives and spread fear. Russia has also engaged in deniable sabotage of critical undersea cables, cyber disruption, airspace violations and border provocations by creating artificial migrant flows. While talk of a limited Russian military incursion into the Baltic region is nothing new, few think that Russia could muster a large enough force to overcome the combined forces of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Read More: Financial Times [paywall], EuroNews, EU Observer, Atlantic Council

Europe

The White House is reportedly looking at trading sanctions relief for Moscow releasing political prisoners. The Atlantic is reporting that John Coale, who the administration recently nominated to be special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, is pushing for the US to provide sanctions relief to Russia in exchange for the Kremlin releasing political prisoners. US President Donald Trump has reportedly embraced the strategy, and Coale has been testing it with Russian ally Belarus. Earlier this month, Minsk released 25 political prisoners in exchange for Washington removing sanctions on a state chemicals company, and Belarus has repeatedly released prisoners in deals with the US.

The sanctions relief push will potentially be coordinated with Trump’s envoys for the Russia-Ukraine war. Coale intends to cooperate with Steven Witkoff, one of Trump’s primary negotiators for a potential end to the conflict, who has been a point of contact for the administration with Russia.

The timing of potential sanctions relief clashes with the recently signed Lindsay Graham sanctions bill. Earlier this month, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law, which allows the administration to impose tariffs on buyers of Russian energy. It also sanctions many Russian actors, although the sanctions are largely discretionary and can be waived by the White House.

Read More: The Atlantic [paywall], CBS News, New York Times [paywall], Stepwise Risk Outlook

Asia-Pacific

China on Tuesday opened a new air force support and training center in Laos, expanding its overseas military presence. The China-Laos Joint Support and Training Center and the China-Laos Friendship Aviation Academy are the new logistics facilities at the Ban Keun airport. China’s Ministry of National Defense said they are now operational and will be used to support air force training, including pilot training. The facility will reportedly be jointly maintained by China and Laos. The opening underscores decades of close Laos-China relations, underpinned by extensive economic, infrastructure and political cooperation.

The facility marks China’s first publicly recognized overseas military site focused on air force support and training and signals Beijing’s interest in deepening its security presence in Southeast Asia. China officially acknowledges only one dedicated overseas military support base, in Djibouti, and has a joint training and support center at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base. Phnom Penh maintains that no Chinese personnel or warships are permanently stationed at Ream. The Laos facility could further expand the PLA’s ability to conduct training and sustain operations in mainland Southeast Asia and the South China Sea, while strengthening China’s access to regional transport and trade corridors.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], South China Morning Post [paywall], Global Times

Americas

The US restricted the visas of 27 Latin American individuals over alleged corruption and narcotrafficking on Monday. The State Department announced that it had revoked existing visas or imposed visa ineligibilities affecting nationals of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, targeting individuals accused of involvement in corruption or drug trafficking. Bolivia accounted for the largest share, as visas were revoked for 12 prosecutors, judges, former officials, a police colonel, and a businessman, while nine additional Bolivians without current visas were made generally ineligible for future visas. The US also revoked visas for Colombian businessman Euclides Torres Romero and Senator Martha Peralta Epieyu, two unnamed Ecuadorians, and Peruvian judge Juan Carlos Nunez Matos. Additionally, Washington designated Bolivian Attorney General Roger Mariaca for allegedly accepting bribes to facilitate narcotrafficking, making him and his immediate family ineligible to enter the US.

The move expands Washington’s use of visa restrictions as a regional pressure tool. The US has recently used similar measures against individuals in Mexico associated with the ruling Morena party. In these cases, the measures were used against individuals in countries that are members of the Shield of the Americas coalition, under which participating governments have pledged coordination on sanctions, designations, and financial measures against criminal actors. The recent focus on Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru reflects Washington pairing regional security cooperation with pressure on officials whom partner governments view as obstacles to counternarcotics and anti-corruption efforts. The action against Mariaca is particularly notable because it directly targets the sitting head of Bolivia’s prosecutorial system.

Read More: State Department, The Hill, AP [paywall]

Africa

Turkish F-16s conducted airstrikes near the town of Baidoa in support of Somali military operations against anti-government forces. Türkiye continues to provide support for the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) as rising tensions between Mogadishu and state governments have prompted clashes between federal and state security forces. The strikes follow a previous Turkish airstrike in the town of Dolow on September 4, which the Jubbaland state government alleged was intended to target General Mahad Abdirahman, a former senior defense official who now opposes the FGS. In addition, opposition forces aligned with the former president of South West state, who was deposed by the FGS, accused Türkiye of targeting the president with strikes in early July and September.

Greater Turkish intervention could intensify internal political tensions and further fragment the security environment. Ankara is a critical security partner for Mogadishu and has significantly increased airstrikes against al-Shabaab this year. In turn, Türkiye’s state-owned energy company is conducting deepwater oil drilling in Somalia’s Exclusive Economic Zone, underscoring Ankara’s growing interest in a more secure and politically stable Somalia. If allegations that Türkiye is targeting opposition figures prove true, however, such operations are likely to generate further resistance from state governments and could escalate conflict between FGS and state security forces. This could create a security vacuum that criminal groups and al-Shabaab are likely to exploit. Intensifying anti-Turkish sentiment in Jubbaland or other areas is also possible, as the September 4 airstrike reportedly sparked multiple protests across the state.

Geoeconomics

US inflation came in below expectations in August, giving the Federal Reserve more room to delay its next rate increase. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose 0.3% from July, below the 0.4% forecast, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%. Annual headline and core inflation stood at 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively, both unchanged from July’s revised readings: changes to how the government measures software prices, portfolio-management fees and legal services lowered previously reported inflation, meaning the improvement partly reflects measurement changes. July’s annual headline rate was previously reported at 3.7%, and core inflation at 3.3%. Consumer spending nevertheless rose 0.9% in August, or 0.6% after inflation, showing that household demand remained strong.

Expectations for an October hike have weakened, although another increase before year-end remains in play. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16. New York Fed President John Williams said on September 29 that there was “no need for urgency” and that one further increase late this year could be appropriate. Following Wednesday’s inflation release, futures markets assigned roughly a 47% probability to an October hike, compared with about 70% on Monday; much of that decline had already occurred before the PCE report. The decision will depend on whether subsequent data show inflation becoming more persistent despite September’s tightening.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], New York Fed, MarketWatch [paywall], Brookings

Disruptive Technology

ICYMI: Anthropic released an IPO prospectus highlighting potential risks, including a concentrated customer base and AI model unpredictability. The prospectus foresees a valuation of more than $2 trillion, surpassing the SpaceX IPO and doubling the company’s most recent valuation. However, several fiduciary and societal risks remain. In terms of the business, Anthropic’s capital expenditure expectations remain high at a planned $518 billion on cloud, computing, and infrastructure in the coming years. The company expects rapid growth to meet those obligations (the company’s annualized revenue is reported at $65 billion for 2026), but the company faced an operating loss of $8 billion in 2025, surpassing revenue ($4.6 billion). Moreover, about a quarter of revenue is concentrated among two large customers. In terms of downside societal risks, the company warns that AI misalignment—and at a potentially catastrophic scale—could threaten humanity, and not least public or regulatory pushback. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called to “pace the frontier” of AI development.

Read More: CNBC, Financial Times [paywall], Reuters [paywall]

Energy

Energy flows out of the Middle East seem to be moving back towards their prewar levels. Data from the analytics firm Kpler indicates that Middle East exports of crude have returned to slightly below 80% of levels before the US war with Iran began. So far in September, flows from the region have reached 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since late February. The shift upwards in oil leaving the Middle East is occurring on the back of increased exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For example, Saudi Arabia has been able to shift exports back towards the Strait of Hormuz following damage to its pipeline to the Red Sea. In February, regional exports were around 19.5 million bpd.

Despite the increases in export flows, prices are remaining elevated as the US and Iran remain stalled on efforts to end the war. Futures prices for Brent crude are still over $100 dollars per barrel, and oil will likely see a monthly price increase of 14% in September, the biggest monthly move upwards since July. West Texas Intermediate will only increase 4% this month but still remains elevated. US President Donald Trump has recently ruled out easing sanctions on Iran and rejected an Iranian peace proposal.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Reuters [paywall], Wall Street Journal [paywall]

Defense

German defense technology company STARK has presented its new 12-meter-long Vanta 12 Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). The Vanta 12 is outfitted with STARK’s artificial intelligence platform Minerva and, according to the company, can autonomously patrol and monitor large tracts of ocean for long periods; it can also be outfitted with effectors to engage potential threats. According to STARK, the USV has a range of 1200 nautical miles and can reach speeds of up to 40 knots. The Vanta 12 was tested at the NATO REPMUS exercise this month together with manned and unmanned systems. The Vanta-12 is the latest in the Vanta series. Berlin has already procured STARK’s 6-meter-long Vanta-6 system. The series is designed to host different sensors and effectors depending on the requirements of the customer.

Read More: Hartpunkt [in German], Naval News