Analysts' Brief: COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye

Risk Outlook: October 30, 2026

Oct 30, 2026

Welcome to the Stepwise Risk Outlook, which highlights and contextualizes over-the-horizon developments in key regions of the world and industries of the global market. Today’s Analysts’ Brief examines the upcoming COP31 in Türkiye.

Analysts’ Brief: COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye

By Anni Coonan, Zayna Dembinski, Elton Smole, and Carter Spahn

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On November 9, representatives will gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for the 31st Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The annual meeting is an opportunity for parties (of which there are 198) to assess progress on climate benchmarks, negotiate new commitments and initiatives, and set new goals. As global bandwidth for climate issues continues to falter, parties will bring diverse ambitions to the conference: Türkiye seeks to solidify its role as a regional power player, newly reelected Brazilian President Lula will bring a new mandate to climate talks, and China will look to use the COP platform to frame Western trade barriers as an obstacle for climate commitments. Meanwhile, a financing crunch will constrict ambitious climate finance targets. Read our analysts' takes below.

In today’s full analysis:

Anni Coonan, Middle East analyst: COP31 is an opportunity for Ankara to build its reputation

Zayna Dembinski, Asia analyst: China will continue to frame Western trade barriers on its clean tech as undermining collective climate goals

Elton Smole, Americas analyst: Brazil brings momentum to climate talks following pivotal presidential elections

Carter Spahn, geoeconomic analyst: Climate finance growth slows as adaptation pressures mount

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Global

Worldwide dockworkers are on strike today, protesting against the use of ports for arms exports. The strikes impact 113 ports in 22 countries, backed by unions and civil society groups seeking to draw attention to the cost of war and show solidarity with the people suffering. The 24-hour protest is expected to disrupt port operations across Europe, the Mediterranean and some ports in India. In May 2026, dockworkers’ unions from over 35 European countries published a “Istanbul Declaration” demanding that port facilities not be used to transport weapons destined for war zones.

Global conflicts are having significant impacts on the maritime industry. In the US-Iran war, Iran is directly targeting maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf in order to disrupt the flow of petroleum products. Russia and Ukraine are targeting shipping and port infrastructure in the Black Sea as the war in Ukraine grinds towards its fifth year of full hostilities. The US and allies have sanctioned thousands of vessels for their roles in transporting petroleum and other products from countries under economic sanctions regimes. Seafarers face heightened risk to their lives and livelihoods, shipping logistics are being disrupted by rerouting of shipping to avoid high-risk waters, and port operators and shipping service companies face complex risks. Shipping has become a deliberate instrument of geopolitical leverage.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], United Nations

Europe

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on February 7, 2027, about six months early. Lagarde stated that she made the personal decision to step down early to gain the “freedom to engage” on matters beyond monetary policy. Two other officials on the ECB Executive Board—Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane—are also departing by May 2027, meaning half of the board will require replacements. The timing of the departures will allow for the European Council to bargain on all three successors in December, well ahead of the April 2027 French presidential election, in which the euroskeptic Marine Le Pen is leading the polls. Lagarde may be considering a new high-profile role, possibly in French politics or as the chair of the World Economic Forum.

Eurozone countries are now proposing successors. Spain has offered Pablo Hernández de Cos, the current head of the Bank for International Settlements and a former central bank governor. The Netherlands is offering its own former monetary chief Klaas Knot, who is seen as more hawkish on potential rate increases to combat potential inflation.

Read More: AP, CNBC, Financial Times [paywall]

Asia-Pacific

US intelligence agencies identified Alice Huang as a Chinese intelligence asset with close ties to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, according to a New York Times report published Thursday. Alice Huang is a Chinese executive at Singapore-based data center company Megaspeed and reportedly also supported China in evading semiconductor export controls. President Donald Trump was allegedly briefed on these intelligence findings a year ago but chose not to act. The Times reports Jensen Huang’s successful lobbying for looser semiconductor export restrictions helped pave the way for Trump’s decision to authorize H200 sales to approved Chinese customers, with the US government receiving 25% of sales.

The case highlights Southeast Asia’s role as a key transshipment hub for illicitly routing US semiconductor chips and servers to China. The Commerce Department had investigated Megaspeed since late 2024 over suspected chip transshipment, after finding Nvidia equipment still boxed at its Malaysian data center. Megaspeed’s Malaysian affiliate reportedly purchased at least $4.8 billion in AI equipment containing Nvidia technology between June 2024 and February 2026. The Alice Huang case could intensify US pressure on Southeast Asian governments and companies to tighten trade regulations and evaluate customers. Beijing has dismissed the intelligence findings as unsubstantiated and part of the smear campaign against China.

Read More: New York Times [paywall], Anadolu Ajansı, NBC News, Kyodo News

Americas

US President Donald Trump is not backing Flavio Bolsonaro’s claim to be the “true president” of Brazil, according to official sources. The Trump administration granted Bolsonaro and his family visas to enter the US after he fled Brazil following his surprise defeat to Lula in the presidential runoff vote. Upon arriving in Florida, Bolsonaro released a statement declaring himself Brazil’s leader. Trump suggested that the election looked rigged but emphasized that he did not pick a side in the race and said that he gets along with incumbent Lula, who turned 81 this week.

Bolsonaro’s actions post-election have drawn backlash in Brazil across the political spectrum. Tarcisio de Freitas, the conservative governor of Sao Paolo, distanced himself from Bolsonaro, declaring his support for democracy and defending the legitimacy of the election result, which he said must be respected. De Freitas is seen as a potential future leader for the right-wing opposition in Brazil. Bolsonaro declared that he would lead the opposition from the US, but this notion has been rejected and even ridiculed in Brazil, where many see Bolsonaro’s decision to flee as severely damaging to the opposition. Other key figures to defend the election results include Bolsonaro’s campaign manager Rogerio Marinho and Kassio Nunes Marques, the head of the electoral court who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Read More: New York Times [paywall], Reuters [paywall], Yahoo! News

Africa

Russia announced several mining and security cooperation agreements during this week’s Russia-Africa Summit. Representatives from nearly 50 African nations attended the event, including 20 heads of state. Among the announced agreements were a deal with Mali to modernize the geomapping of its lithium deposits and a partnership with the Ghana Integrated Aluminum Development Corporation to jointly develop the country’s bauxite and aluminum sectors. On the security front, Russia delivered 12 Su-35 fighter jets to Ethiopia and plans to provide four S-400 air defense systems.

Whether Russia can sustain its image as a credible security actor and partner attuned to African interests is uncertain. The Africa Corps’ continued inability to contain jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel has undermined Moscow’s credibility and complicated efforts to secure access to the region’s critical minerals. In addition, reports of Africans being misled into serving on the front lines in Ukraine have contributed to a modest increase in negative perceptions of Russia. If these concerns persist, African leaders may become less willing to deepen cooperation with the Kremlin, although a complete rupture in relations remains unlikely. Previous summits produced cooperation agreements that either failed to materialize into meaningful commercial projects or generated only limited outcomes, raising questions about the extent to which Russia’s current engagement will deliver tangible results.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Reuters [paywall], BBC, Chatham House

Geoeconomics

US economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as strong consumer spending and AI investment outweighed a widening trade deficit. Real GDP expanded at a 3.4% annualized rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter and the fastest pace in a year. Consumer spending grew 3.8%, matching the previous quarter, while business equipment investment surged 20.9%, led by computers and related equipment. Private domestic demand, which combines consumption and fixed investment while excluding trade, inventories and government spending, increased 4.9%, compared with 4.6% previously. Inventory rebuilding added roughly 1.6 percentage points to growth, and government spending also increased. However, housing investment contracted, while rising imports and falling exports reduced the headline figure. The report shows continued strength in domestic demand, with a substantial share of equipment purchases supplied from abroad.

Inflation is eroding the household purchasing power supporting that growth. Annual PCE inflation rose to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in August, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, stood at 3.1%. Prices absorbed almost all of September’s 0.5% increase in nominal consumer spending, leaving inflation-adjusted spending essentially flat. Real disposable income fell 0.3%, and the saving rate declined to 3.8%. As a result, wages and salaries were 0.6% lower after inflation than a year earlier. These figures suggest that strong quarterly growth masks weakening consumer momentum heading into the fourth quarter, with falling real incomes potentially constraining future consumption.

Read More: BEA, Reuters [paywall], BLS, Federal Reserve, The Conference Board [paywall]

Energy

Russia is developing its nuclear energy cooperation with Africa. Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear company, has announced it is in advanced talks with at least four different countries to build floating nuclear power plants. Russia is proposing these projects through a power purchase agreement (PPA) model, which would see servicing and refueling cycles being handled in Russia. Russia operates the only floating nuclear plant on earth, which is located in Russia’s Chukotka region. Moscow also reportedly expects to advance its talks with Mali on the discussion of a nuclear power plant constructed by Rosatom. Russia’s announcements on potential new projects are part of the Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow.

Russia has emphasized its role as a leading nuclear energy provider in recent years. Rosatom is the most active company globally in the construction and provision of nuclear energy services, and the company is involved in constructing power plants in Central Asia, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Moscow’s offer of nuclear energy cooperation has also become more attractive as countries look to secure their domestic energy supplies against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and energy crises brought on by events like the Iran war.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Vedomosti [in Russian], Stepwise Risk Outlook

Defense

The total cost of the US war with Iran has risen to $47 billion. That is a more than 25% increase compared with the Pentagon’s estimate from July of $37.5 billion. This newest estimate places the project costs of replacing munitions expended during the conflict at around $29 billion, and replacing lost military equipment and “platform losses” from the war would add another $6 billion to project costs. The war has also forced record deployments for some naval assets in the region, such as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and the accompanying ships from its carrier strike group.

By the end of the summer, the US had used up most of its stockpiles of crucial missile capabilities. The US had used more than two-thirds of its Patriot air defense interceptors and approximately half of its Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) interceptors against Iran. The US had also reportedly run through much of its store of long-range offensive missiles.